I’m the Editor for Sports of an online gambling and sports news website. I have a wealth of knowledge in gambling, sports journalism, and mathematics. Are you a gambling expert? You could probably say that.
A lot of so-called experts in gambling are willing to share information about their methods in order to beat the bookie or generate an additional revenue by playing, but this costs money. I’m not going to do that. I’ll simply provide information on bookmakers, odds and gambling that you can make use of (or ignore) however you like.
First, it is important to know that the vast majority of gamblers who gamble end up losing a significant amount of money over the course of time. This is the very reason that there are so many bookmakers making millions of dollars across the globe.
However, when bookmakers take big hits, for instance if an unpopular horse wins the Grand National, they spread their risk as wide as they can and they set up markets that incorporate an element of margin, which means they will always make a profit in the medium to long time frame, but not in the short term. So long as they have done the calculations correctly.
In determining their odds on a specific occasion, bookmakers have to first determine the likelihood of this event taking place. They use statistical models based on data from many years and sometimes for decades, on the sport or team/competitor. Of course, if the sport was 100% predictable, it would soon lose its appeal, and although the bookies are usually right in their assessment of the likelihood of the event, they are often way off due to the fact that a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Take a look at any sport and you’ll find an occasion when the underdog wins against all odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then powerful Liverpool in the FA Cup토토사이트 Final of 1988 for instance, or the USA defeating the once powerful USSR in ice hockey during the 1980 Olympics are two examples of occasions where you would have received excellent odds against the underdog. You could have walked away with an impressive wedge.
The big bookmakers spend much of their time and money to ensure they have the best odds that ensure they take into account the perceived likelihood of the event and then add that extra small amount to give them an income margin. If an event is said to have an odds of say, 1/3 then the odds to reflect that probability would be 2/1. This implies that there is an odds-on-one ratio of two for an event occurring.
If their statistics are correct, however, they would be in the red if they decided to established these odds. Therefore, they could place the odds at, say, 6/4. In this way they have built in the margin that ensures, over time, they will make money from betting on this particular selection. It is the same concept like a roulette game in a casino.
So how can you spot instances where bookmakers have not done their job correctly? It’s not hard but it’s doable.
You can start by learning how to mathematically model and create an understanding of all variables that influence the outcomes of an event. This tactic has a problem. It is not able to account for all of the variables that affect individuals’ mental states regardless of how complex or extensive it appears. It’s not based on the weather or time of week, but rather how golfers make a five-foot putt to win a major at St Andrews. The maths may also become quite complex.
Or, you could find in a sport niche. Bookmakers tend to focus their attention on events that earn the most profit, usually soccer (soccer), American football and horse racing. It is difficult to beat the bookies if you are betting on Manchester United v Chelsea matches. It is unlikely that you will be capable of beating the bookies if you do not work for either of the clubs or are married or involved with one of the players or managers.
However, if you are betting on football that is not league or badminton or crown green bowls, it’s possible, through hard work reading many statistics, and general data gathering, you can start to gain an edge over bookmakers (if they provide odds for such events as they do).
What can you do when you’ve got an the edge in terms of information? Take note of the difference.
Value betting lets you back a selection with odds greater than the actual probability of happening. If you evaluate the likelihood of a non-league football team (Grimsby Town) winning their next match with odds of 1/3 or 33% and discover a bookmaker that has odds of 3/1 then you could place a value wager. The reason being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built into by the bookmaker) indicate a chance of 25% or 1/4. This effectively adds an 8% margin to your own opinion that the bookie has underestimated Grimsby’s chance.
Of course Grimsby (as is usually the case) may blunder their lines and fail to win the game, which means it could result in losing the bet. However, if you search for and bet on value bets and over time, you’ll earn a profit. If you do not then, over time, you will lose. Simple.